Medicare-for-All proponents Kara Eastman and Dana Balter lost to GOP Reps. Don Bacon (NE-02) and John Katko (NY-24) by five and ten points respectively, despite Biden carrying both districts by seven points. [CDATA[// >. August 30, 2019 @Redistrict. GOP outside groups failed to make a significant investment in a dozen races Democrats won by less than five points, including two they won anyway (CA-39 and FL-27). 14 Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups” in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of … The nonpartisan Cook Political Report made its final House forecast Monday, a day before the Nov. 3 elections, indicating that a combination of factors … In the end, women and minorities helped Republicans win six districts Trump failed to carry. Had they invested more, we would have been likelier to change our rating. It categorizes all congressional districts not designated as "safe" in that map as of the time specified below the table. Texas’s move to the toss up column comes a day after the Cook Political Report's House editor Dave Wasserman declared over Twitter that Biden is favored to win the 2020 … In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." It now sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election. However, there were likely far more voters who entered the final week undecided on their congressional choice than their choice for president. But in a presidential cycle with plenty of voters who aren't immersed in the policy weeds, these attacks worked. The Cook Political Report said four of the races were in Texas, three of which it changed from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" and another which it said was now a "toss up." But as life (hopefully) returns to normal, we'll recommit ourselves to cultivating as many relationships with local journalists and state-based sources as DC-based consultants and pollsters, who can often get trapped in an echo chamber and miss important signals. Dave Wasserman, Cook's House editor, tweeted: "I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction." Van Duyne ended up beating Valenzuela, who ran as the progressive in the Democratic primary, by a point - even though non-whites are now a majority in the suburban Dallas seat and Biden carried the district at the top of the ticket. And, they won. But this time, these voters could vote directly against Trump but still vote for a more conventional Republican they liked. With the benefit of a month to reflect, here are five takeaways from 2020's surprises and three lessons for how we might recalibrate our approach for the next cycle. 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